Saturday, May 23, 2009

Half of all MPs will be swept away at next election - Times

There's an interesting piece in the Times tomorrow. As the suggestion of a regular commenter, I ran a poll a week or so ago asking how many MPs would be left in the House of Commons after the next election. The top choice was 300-400 with 31%, followed by 200-300 with 22%.

The Times says that 325 MPs will be "swept away" at the next election either by standing down prior to it, deselection or simply ejection by the voters.

As many as 30 will be forced to resign directly because of the expenses scandal, while whips expect more than 200 to quit because they are unable to cope with continued public anger. Up to 90 MPs will be voted out in the election.

Research conducted by The Sunday Times and Professor Colin Rallings, director of the elections centre at Plymouth University, suggests that about 170 Labour MPs will not defend their seats while 55 Conservatives are also expected to retire.

Dozens more MPs from all parties are likely to lose their seats as voters kick out incumbents, accused of profiting from their allowances.

Rallings said: “If, as the current polls suggest, the Conservatives were to win the general election with an overall majority of 80 seats, it is likely that fully half of MPs in the new House of Commons will be new, a product both of incumbents being defeated and MPs retiring. It would be without parallel since 1945.”

...The Liberal Democrats expect about five departures...

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