Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Are we in the middle pointy-uppy bit of a W-shaped recession?

Well, we somehow need to reverse or recompense any negative recession-related thoughts we had during April and May. Why? Because we weren't in a recession in April and May. GDP was actually rising during those months. And, as a recession is normally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, by my book that means the recession ended, appropriately, on April 1st! Trebles all round! Let's see the BBC rolling out their special green upwards arrow graphic labelled "End of the Recession" (unlikely - good news on the BBC is normally confined to Springwatch and even that has enormously distressing blood and gore episodes in it).

However, that doesn't mean we couldn't now be plunging back into a recession, of course. Indeed, with Old Moore himself, Saint Vincent of the Cable Knit telling us to beware of an oil price hike, it is perfectly conceivable that there will be no "early bath" for the recession.

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