Friday, September 12, 2008

Post-convention polls - McCain loses ground in crucial Mid-West

Dave V on Daily Kos analyses the Gallup polls from before the conventions until afterwards. In summary:

The Palin bounce was largely contained to the South (+11) -- states that Barack does not need to win the election. It was also fairly substantial in the East (+6), but the East is largely locked up for Obama. The bounce was smallest in the crucial Midwest (+4) and nil in the West.
Over both conventions, McCain lost ground in both the Midwest and West -- areas that contain the crucial battleground states.


Votemaster on Electoral-vote.com produces a handy table to show this:



So, Obama's lead has reduced by 4 points in the East, but he is hardly at risk.

In the South, McCain was yards ahead anyway, so now he is a bit moire ahead.

In the West, Obama has gone two points further ahead.

In the crucial Mid-West, McCain was one point ahead before the conventions but now Obama is six points ahead.

So, all together now, it's still "squeaky bum time".

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