Charles Franklin on Pollster.com has an excellent analysis of the post-convention polls.
Summary: it's too early to say anything other than there might be a shift downwards in the Obama lead. The much heralded Gallup/USA Today poll showing McCain 10 points ahead is a genuine outlier. It polled likely voters, for one thing, a constiuency which is usually favourable towards the Republicans.
A prudent approach is to wait for a few more post-convention and post-weekend interviewing polls to see just how big and how sustained the RNC bounce is. But both estimators agree we have ourselves a real horserace now.
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