Friday, March 21, 2008

Michigan Senate goes on holiday - Is Hillary now toast ?

So the Michigan Senate has adjourned for its holiday without passing legislation for a "re-do" of the Democratic primary.

Is Hillary now toast ? Probably not, of course, because you never write off a Clinton.

Bill Schneider on CNN says that Clinton faces an uphill struggle. Obama leads on delegates and the popular vote so far in the primaries/caucases.

To win on delegates, Schneider reckons that Clinton would have to win two-thirds of the delegates from the remaining contests. Tough.

To win on the popular vote, Clinton would require 56% of the vote in the remaining primaries. So far she has averaged 46%.

So either way, Clinton is struggling. The super-delegates are likely to go with whoever is ahead in the actual primaries, Shneider reckons.

However, also on CNN, David Gergen writes about "How Hillary grabs the nomination".

If at the end of the day, the re-dos disappear in Michigan and Florida, Clinton still has one hope - and not a very appealing one for anybody: That because of the Reverend Wright affair, the bottom completely drops out for Obama and he loses big not only in places like Pennsylvania and Indiana but also in North Carolina, where he has been ahead. That is a scenario that would bring shutters to much of the country that has a more elevated view of what America is all about.

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