American Research group has published a poll of likely voters in the Democrat and Republican primaries which shows the race for the nominations closer than reflected in national polls.
For the Democrats, Clinton is on 34% with Obama close behind on 31%. That compares to a recent nationwide poll by NBC which showed the gap 40% to 28%. This perhaps reflects the focus that Obama has been concentrating on the primary states where he is said to be wowing the party faithful.
Guiliani leads McCain for the Republicans by just 34% to 30%. In contrast the NBC nationwide poll showed the gap as 38% to 24%. This may well reflect Guiliani's weakness with core Republican voters.
I would have thought that these American Research group findings are more significant that the national polls at the moment. If you do well in the early primary states, you can "flip" the election in your favour during the primary season.
Hat tip to Political Wire.