Toss-up states - reading the tea leaves

I've just been having another squint at the polling in the "toss-up" states. The national US Presidential race numbers are relatively meaningless unless you also look at the Electoral Votes from the states.

I obtain the "toss-up" states from Charlie Cook's list. Obama has 240 electoral college votes from solid, likely or "leaning" states. McCain has 174 of the same. Then there are 124 electoral votes up for grabs in the middle. A candidate needs 270 to win. So if Obama can pick up 30+ votes from the "toss-ups", while winning his solid, likely and "leaning" states, then he wins.

Current scores on the doors, taken from Pollster.com (who do a roll-up of polls of the states), with a bit of help from Electoral-vote.com are:

(Click on the state names to see details and a graph)

Colorado (9 electoral college votes - EVs)

Obama is ahead 45 to 43. He's been a clear leader for a while and the gap seems constant at the moment. A pick-up for Obama since 2004, if he can keep the lead. Mind you, there have been a couple of polls lately showing McCain just one point ahead.

Florida (27 EVs)

McCain has it, 46 to 44. He's been ahead for 18 months but the gap has been narrowly significantly. Obama, however, has led by one or two points in three polls in the last month.

Iowa (7 EVs)

Obama is 7 points ahead - 48.5 to 42. The gap has remained fairly constant in the last few months. A pick-up for Obama since 2004 if he keeps this up.

Michigan (17 EVs)

Obama is ahead 45.8 to 41. After narrowing the gap earlier this year, McCain is static at about 5 points behind. You have to go back to May to see any poll here with McCain leading.

Nevada (5 EVs)

After Obama (or the Democrats) was/were ahead all last year, there was a switch in Marchish this year and McCain took the lead. Now it's narrowed to 45 for McCain and 44 for Obama. Obama has been ahead in a couple of recent polls.

North Carolina (15 EVs)

McCain ahead 47 to 44, and the gap is relatively constant.

Ohio (20 EVs)

As usual, a white knuckle ride. The latest average gives Obama 44% and McCain 43%. Rasmussen seem to stubbornly have McCain in the lead. Very iffy.

Virginia (13 EVs)

A fascinating graph, this one. In the last two years McCain has been coming steadily down, while Obama has steadily gone up. McCain was in the lead, but Obama took over the lead a couple of months ago and is now ahead at 45.9% to McCain's 44.6%. Very iffy.

I have checked the detailed polls for each state here, as well as at Pollster (links in each state header above).

So being very conservative (but even then making the sweeping assumption that the "leaning" Obama states will go for him), I would cautiously say that Obama could pick up these states from the toss-ups:

9 from Colorado
7 from Iowa
17 from Michigan

....which would give him 273 electoral college votes - just squeaking past the 270 needed.

I wouldn't be so bold as to know what the heck Virginia and Ohio will do at the moment - they are far too iffy.

On this day in 2004, Bush had roughly 270 votes to Kerry's 252.