Sunday, September 30, 2007

Gordon and Brenda - A date for Tuesday?

The interesting thing about the Ipsos MORI poll in the Observer today is that the percentage of respondents saying Brown should call an autumn election is 39%. In last Wednesday's YouGov poll this was 29%. Of course, these are polls done by different pollsters. But I wonder whether perhaps there is a growing body of people, after all the speculation, who are saying "Oh, go on then - get it over and done with, Gordon".

I notice that we are repeatedly being told that there won't be an announcement this week - Gordon is going to wait until the Tory conference is over, apparently. So we are told.

Is it the old cynic in me, or does this make me certain that the old blighter will jump in his Rover, Brenda-bound, tomorrow or Tuesday to go for October 25th? (He has to allow 17 working days between going to the Queen to ask her to dissolve parliament and polling day - meaning, by my calculations, he would have to, at the very latest, go up the Mall with the early morning traffic on Tuesday).

This would completely wreck the Tory conference. Just imagine all those MPs having to hurriedly book out of their hotels, forfeiting their payments, and abandoning Cameron to address one of Britain's finest collection of chairs on Wednesday.

I really can't believe that that old political calculating machine, old Brownie, will collate all his various polls, focus groups reports, seaweeds and teabags and come to the conclusion that he will go to the polls on November 1st or that it might be a good option to leave open (Bearing in mind Haloween on Oct 31st, clocks going back on Oct 28th, bad weather, fireworks, particularly bad prospects for Scotland). The last time the UK had a general election after October 25th was 72 years ago in 1935.

And I really do think that Brown is going to have an enormous problem with just saying "ho hum, no election this year" after all this fuss.

By the way, forget everything I have written on this subject up until now!

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