Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Election on November 1st?! Do me a favour!

Update: I am extremely grateful to Nick Robinson and the BBC for linking to this post. Well done BBC! I wrote this post on September 25th. Since that time, I have been swept away by election fever, with the best of them. You might be interested in reading some of my subsequent posts on the election subject here.

Nick Robinson says he has it on sound authority that the government will not call an election for October 25th.

So, those still gullible enough to be drawn along by this "snap" election nonsense are now looking at November 1st.

Do me a favour. It's not going to happen. The weather situation will be too risky. It could be snowing, for goodness sake. And even Gordon Brown isn't clever enough to convince people that he is calling them out into the cold and dark to vote, two and a half years early, in the national interest.

The only circumstances under which the British people would "buy" an election in November is if there is some sort of national emergency which requires it.

I have been looking back to photos and weather records for the 1st November in years gone by.

The main risk seems to be heavy rain and, less probably, frost. That means temperatures down to zero - and Brown will ask people to go out in that?! Bear in mind that a large chunk of Labour voters, who work during the day, will have to be encouraged to vote early in the morning or late in the evening when it will be cold and/or dark.

Most of the past 1st Novembers have been mild days but heavy rain seems an almost constant feature. I have shown a few pictures taken on those November 1sts - below.

As an indicator, here's a cheery news clip from 28th October 2002, just a few days before the projected date:

Storms leave thousands without power: Thousands of homes across Cheshire and Staffordshire are still without electricity this morning after the weekend gales brought down power lines. The power supply companies have drafted in extra staff to help with repairs, but say it may take the rest of the day to complete them.

November 1st 2006 had some sharp frosts with temperatures falling to -5.2 degrees centigrade at Benson, Oxfordshire.

November 1st 2005 was mild but with heavy rain.

November 1st 2004 was mild with heavy rain.

November 1st 2003 was mild but with frequent rain and showers, some thundery.

November 1st 2002 was "mild but very wet and windy start to the month as fronts moved northeast across the region. The rain was heavy at times with hill and coastal fog in the southwest."

November 1st 2001 was warm.

1st November 2003 - foggy, but admittedly not a place where you would normally find a polling station! It's Scafell.

November 1st 2005 in Hainault Forest.

November 1st 2006 - nice, but this in the Channel Islands.

November 1st 2004 in Derby - misty

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